Welcome to our Betting Guide brought to you by NHL Betting site Betway!
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2022-23 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via Betway), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Monday, December 12
- Record: 43-32
- Units: +18.26
- ROI: +24.34%
New York Rangers (vs. NJD) ML +100
The Devils went on a remarkable 13-game winning streak but have looked more beatable since going 5-2-1 in their last eight and going 4-4 in the xG battle at 5v5 in that time. They haven’t been able to dominate at 5v5 the same way they were, and as a result, you get good value on the Rangers tonight. I don’t agree with how lopsided the model sees this game (-141), but I do agree that there’s plenty of value in the Rangers +100 on home ice with Igor Shesterkin expected to start. After some shaky outings, Shesterkin has won two in a row while stopping 66 of 68 shots (.971 SV%).
1 Unit Bet: NYR ML +100
St. Louis Blues (vs. NSH) +106
The Blues are also home underdogs tonight because they’re on a back-to-back, and Thomas Greiss will likely start. Greiss hasn’t been great but has won three of his last four starts and has an .898 SV% in his last five appearances. The model already views the Blues as -140 favourites, so even if you downgrade them 20 cents for Greiss, this is still a valueable bet. Additionally, the Predators announced that Alexandre Carrier is week-to-week and Jeremy Lauzon is day-to-day, so they’ll be without four of their regular defensemen as they join Ryan McDonagh and Mark Borowiecki on the sideline. Missing 66 percent of your regular blueliners could prove to be too much to overcome for the Predators.
1 Unit Bet: STL ML +106