This past June, 35-year-old Mark Giordano won the Norris Trophy. Not only did he finish first in the balloting done by the Professional Hockey Writers Association – disclosure: I did not vote – he won the award in a landslide.
But now the Calgary Flames are entering a season where their oldest player, best player and on-ice leader will be 36 years old. He may say he’s young and fresh, but what are reasonable expectations for a player of his style and age?
We dug into the numbers – data via Natural Stat Trick – and took a look at all defensemen that scored 50+ points in a season from ages 35+ in what’s known as the Better Data Era (2007-08 to present). 50+ point years are indicated with an asterix beside the season.
Spoilers: Giordano is kind of a unicorn.
Mark Giordano
| Age | S% | PDO | CF/60 | CA/60 | CorsiRel | |
| 2018-19* | 35 | 6.6 | 1.019 | 65.32 | 48.59 | +5.17% |
Giordano’s monster year came when he was 35. As you can see, he shot nearly 7% at even-strength. That’s pretty crazy, and likely to drop because of how crazy-high it is (as is his PDO). That said, he was a very strong possession player and that doesn’t disappear overnight.
Sergei Gonchar
| Age | S% | PDO | CF/60 | CA/60 | CorsiRel | |
| 2009-10* | 35 | 7.6 | 0.984 | 59.78 | 52.99 | +0.41% |
| 2010-11 | 36 | 1.7 | 0.979 | 52.33 | 52.92 | -1.11% |
| 2011-12 | 37 | 2.6 | 0.993 | 57.66 | 55.57 | -1.53% |
| 2012-13 | 38 | 1.9 | 1.005 | 62.47 | 54.71 | -0.45% |
Like Giordano’s, Gonchar’s big offensive year was seemingly powered by a big spike in his shooting percentage. He wasn’t a possession monster offensively or defensively, but he was pretty representative of the team he was on. His defensive numbers eroded a bit over time, but aside from a dip in his 36-year-old season his offensive rates didn’t collapse.
Nicklas Lidstrom
| Age | S% | PDO | CF/60 | CA/60 | CorsiRel | |
| 2007-08* | 37 | 4.8 | 1.035 | 60.96 | 40.77 | +1.70% |
| 2008-09* | 38 | 4.8 | 1.011 | 62.51 | 44.37 | +1.93% |
| 2009-10 | 39 | 3.0 | 0.996 | 63.79 | 48.06 | +4.88% |
| 2010-11* | 40 | 4.4 | 1.003 | 58.29 | 55.54 | -3.03% |
Lidstrom’s another unicorn. He entered the Better Data Era as a 37-year-old and posted sub-50 Corsi Against rates for three seasons, along with Corsi For rates north of 60. Heck, he ended his career with another insane year. Lidstrom’s a freak of nature.
Scott Niedermayer
| Age | S% | PDO | CF/60 | CA/60 | CorsiRel | |
| 2008-09* | 35 | 2.3 | 0.999 | 48.62 | 47.88 | -0.94% |
| 2009-10 | 36 | 4.8 | 0.994 | 53.93 | 54.23 | +3.75% |
Niedermayer’s underlyings were pretty tidy during his big year, not even being drive by a shooting spike. But his entire game became a bit sloppier and more high-event the following season.
Chris Pronger
| Age | S% | PDO | CF/60 | CA/60 | CorsiRel | |
| 2009-10* | 35 | 5.3 | 1.007 | 58.30 | 51.16 | +3.70% |
| 2010-11 | 36 | 1.6 | 1.009 | 60.24 | 59.20 | +0.20% |
| 2011-12 | 37 | 0.0 | 1.039 | 56.68 | 53.33 | +4.16% |
Pronger’s 35-year-old season was his last full season, then injuries hit him and his shooting percentage imploded (in the few games he did play).
Brian Rafalski
| Age | S% | PDO | CF/60 | CA/60 | CorsiRel | |
| 2008-09* | 35 | 6.1 | 1.003 | 61.32 | 43.45 | +2.19% |
| 2009-10 | 36 | 1.3 | 1.002 | 62.55 | 48.46 | +3.60% |
| 2010-11 | 37 | 6.7 | 1.004 | 62.24 | 47.13 | +4.88% |
Rafalski’s final three seasons were all pretty tidy – Corsi For rate north of 60 and Corsi Against below 50.
Andrei Markov
| Age | S% | PDO | CF/60 | CA/60 | CorsiRel | |
| 2013-14 | 35 | 3.8 | 1.013 | 57.94 | 59.25 | +4.34% |
| 2014-15* | 36 | 4.2 | 1.026 | 59.03 | 57.26 | +3.65% |
| 2015-16 | 37 | 1.4 | 1.008 | 57.49 | 55.89 | -1.30% |
| 2016-17 | 38 | 6.4 | 1.025 | 62.17 | 53.60 | +1.84% |
Markov’s a bit of an outlier in this group because he was always pretty high-event in his post-35 seasons. A PDO spike likely contributed to his strong 2014-15 offensive season.
Our best guess
Generally-speaking, defenders lose their speed past the age of 35. Because of that, their defensive rates get higher (they allow more chances and better chances) and generally they become more high-event players. Rather than use their mobility to dictate the game’s pace, they’re more frenetic and reactive.
Right now, it doesn’t seem like Giordano’s speed is going to fall off a cliff… yet. Given that, his possession stats probably won’t change a ton – though his Corsi Against rate likely won’t be sub-50 again. His shooting percentage is bound to drop and his PDO will likely normalize a bit, so he won’t get the bounces as often – all things being equal.
In short? Giordano likely won’t have another 70 point season. But unless his underlyings completely fall off a cliff, a 50 or 60 point year isn’t unreasonable to expect.
